MLB Predictions – 2014

It’s that time of year again and I obviously waited until the last possible moment to do my predictions. Some people would even say I’m a little late.. 2 games late.. if you count the 2 game series between the Arizona Diamondbacks and the Los Angeles Dodgers which was played in Australia last weekend. Those two games won’t affect my predictions so I think I’m okay there. The Boston Red Sox won the World Series last year and the good thing there is a new season is on the brink and everyone has a chance. Lets get to it!

AL East

1) Tampa Bay Rays
2) Boston Red Sox
3) Baltimore Orioles
4) New York Yankees
5) Toronto Blue Jays
Analysis: For years this division has been the toughest in baseball, but not this season. I picked Tampa last year to get to the World Series, but they battled a lot of injuries and didn’t have such a great offensive season. I think they will be a little different this year and they are always surrounded by young stars in the pitching rotation. Boston still has a strong team, but will their bullpen be as sharp as last year? Will they stay away from injuries and will their young stars be consistent all season? Baltimore may make a run for the wild card, but it’s their pitching that concerns me more than their hitting.

AL Central
1) Detroit Tigers
2) Kansas City Royals
3) Minnesota Twins
4) Cleveland Indians
5) Chicago White Sox
Analysis: I still believe the Tigers will finish in first in their division even without Jim Leyland and first year manager, Brad Ausmus. They still have the best team, hitting wise and pitching wise in their division and maybe possibly the whole American League. The teams that follow them are still wide open to me and I think two surprises will be the Royals and the Twins. The Indians can still put together a good year and compete for 2nd place but I think the Royals and Twins have more depth to last through the season.

AL West
1) Oakland Athletics
2) Seattle Mariners
3) Texas Rangers
4) Los Angeles Angels
5) Houston Astros
Analysis: This is a tough division to predict, but my gut tells me that Oakland will be the team to break out so that’s what I’m going with. I hate to also buy onto all the offseason moves that Seattle made, but aside from their young offensive players and the signing of Robinson Cano, their pitching staff doesn’t look too bad and they have a reliable closer to string together wins. The Rangers always have the ability to finish in first, but I have them in third since they got off to a rough start with injuries. With the Angels, this may be the year where Scioscia gets canned and I still don’t think it’s all his fault. They are offensively stacked, but also aging with Josh Hamilton and Albert Pujols if they ever return to form. They don’t have the depth in pitching to hang on all season and Mike Trout won’t be able to carry them 162 games this year.

AL Playoffs
1) Detroit Tigers
2) Oakland Athletics
3) Tampa Bay Rays
Wild Card
4) Boston Red Sox
5) Baltimore Orioles

AL Champions
Oakland Athletics

NL East
1) Washington Nationals
2) Atlanta Braves
3) Philadelphia Phillies
4) Miami Marlins
5) New York Mets
Analysis: This was a competitive division a few years ago and it’s getting less and less. I liked Atlanta in the offseason and even last season, but they have taken big hits with injuries in their starting rotation. They also have a lot of inconsistencies in hitting with Uggla and BJ Upton who never really came around last season. The Nationals are really building a beast for Matt Williams and I think they have the ability to win well over 100 games this year if they stay healthy for the most part. The Phillies will be competitive and may be just on the outside of the Wild Card race. I think they’ll have a better year than most “experts” expect. I also took the Marlins out of the cellar. I think they have pieces to grow and to be… eh, decent?

NL Central
1) Pittsburgh Pirates
2) St. Louis Cardinals
3) Cincinnati Reds
4) Milwaukee Brewers
5) Chicago Cubs
Analysis: This is undoubtedly one of the best divisions in all of baseball. The race of the top 3 will be an exciting one once again and maybe add a fourth with the Brewers who have a, not-so-bad starting rotation and the return of their MVP, Ryan Braun. The Pirates and Cardinals will fight it out for most of the year, but I think the potential is that the top 3 (as I have it) will all be playing at least a game in the post-season. It’s hard to pick the Cubs to break the mold with the lack of offensive firepower. They will have to make some moves to show they can compete with these teams.

NL West
1) Los Angeles Dodgers
2) San Francisco Giants
3) San Diego Padres
4) Colorado Rockies
5) Arizona Diamondbacks
Analysis: Are the Dodgers the team to beat in the National League? Living in LA I would say most people would think so, but I’m not too sure. They are starting the season with attitude issues with Puig, Kershaw and Kemp on the DL. I think the Giants can give them fits for first place, at least for the first half of the season. The Giants went through injuries last year that caused a down year, but they have a good core offensively and they always have their strong pitching to lean on (watch for Lincecum to have a bounce back season).

NL Playoffs
1) Washington Nationals
2) Los Angeles Dodgers
3) Pittsburgh Pirates
Wild Card
4) St. Louis Cardinals
5) San Francisco Giants

NL Champions
Los Angeles Dodgers

World Series Champions
Los Angeles Dodgers over Oakland Athletics

If all goes into my predictions this team will become victorious. It won’t be an easy season for them and I know they are the favorites going into this season (based on Vegas odds), the favorites are the Dodgers and the Tigers to go to the World Series in their respective Leagues. The Dodgers will have to fight through the pressure and the expectations of a huge salary cap, lots of star players, and lots of egos and competing with the National League which is stronger than the American League (in my opinion). If they get there, they will have to be solid in the bullpen, fight through injuries, possibly make some trades mid year, to figure out the outfield situation of having Kemp, Ethier, Crawford, and Puig and also fight through stability in their rotation. Let the season begin!

All-Star Break and Mid-Season Grades

You can close the books on the first half of the MLB season and you’ve seen some players have excellent halves, horrible halves, and teams climb their way out of the cellar. We are nearing the trade deadline (end of July) and there may be some big trades to move stars to teams that are contenders.

The 2013 All-Star Game was played last night where American League pitching completely shut down the National League All-Stars, holding the NL to just 3 hits. The highlight of the game was when Mariano Rivera (pictured above) entered the game in the 8th. He was the only player to take the field to his familiar intro “Enter Sandman”. Fans of all MLB teams in the stands, his AL All-Star teammates, and NL All-Star peers gave him a standing ovation. Well deserved. For a guy that has been in the biggest situations year after year, he still got choked up, which shows he is human after all, not just the greatest closer of all-time. Out of his 18 seasons, Rivera has been an all-star 13 times. His first being in 1997 and his last being this season, 2013. He’s pitched in 9 of those games, where he has given up no earned runs and only 5 hits. Not so surprising when you take a look at his overall stats, which I will be sure to break down when the season comes to an end.

The first half of the season had memorable moments such as Homer Bailey throwing his 2nd career no-hitter against the Giants and not even 2 weeks later, Tim Lincecum of the Giants threw his own no-hitter against the Padres. Chris Davis of the Baltimore Orioles is hitting .315 with 70 runs, 35 home runs, and 93 RBIs, while last year’s triple crown winner, Miguel Cabrera is hitting .365 with 73 runs, 30 home runs, and 95 RBIs. We’re in for another great half of the season, which will be filled with individual milestones, trades, and most importantly, the race to the post season. Here are my grades from the first half!

{The standings below reflect my predictions from the beginning of the season}
[Numbers in brackets and bold reflect where the team is in the standings now]

NL East
1) Atlanta Braves                [1]   B+
2) Washington Nationals     [2]    C-
3) Philadelphia Phillies        [3]    C 
4) New York Mets               [4]    D+
5) Miami Marlins                 [5]    D-

Analysis: If Atlanta was healthier, they would be running away with this division. Most would say they already are, but the type of players Washington has in the rotation and in their lineup, they can always make a run. This is a 2 team race for the division, but there is also a good chance Washington makes a run for the Wild Card. The Phillies made it to .500 on the last day of the first half, but I feel like with Howard getting hurt, they may be looking to trade away some pieces. I wouldn’t be surprised to see them give up Utley and possibly Ruiz to get some prospects in return and look into the future. The Braves have a lot of upside when they get Beachy back and if BJ Upton and Dan Uggla ever get their batting average above .250.

NL Central
1) Cincinnati Reds        [3]   B+
2) St. Louis Cardinals   [1]   A+
3) Pittsburgh Pirates     [2]   A
4) Milwaukee Brewers  [5]   F
5) Chicago Cubs           [4]   C

Analysis: I give the Reds a B+ because even though they are sitting in 3rd, the top 3 teams in this division may still make the playoffs. The Reds would be in 2nd place or maybe even first place if they were in other division. They just need to be a little more effective on the road. Pittsburgh is the team to talk about because everything is clicking for them. They have solid starting pitching, bullpen, and hitting. I expect to see them make a move or two to bulk up their rotation so they can compete with St. Louis down the stretch. Just a few things to look for, the Brewers and Cubs are basically out of it, so watch for them to move some of their players, such as Matt Garza and Alfonso Soriano, and they may be on contenders by August.

NL West
1) San Francisco Giants     [4]   D+
2) Los Angeles Dodgers     [2]   A-
3) San Diego Padres          [5]   D-
4) Arizona Diamondbacks  [1]   B+
5) Colorado Rockies           [3]   C

Analysis: So this division is just confusing and jumbled from what I originally thought. I wouldn’t count San Francisco out of it yet, but they REALLY need some hitting. I wouldn’t be surprised if they looked to trade Lincecum for some hitting in return. Also, they have a solid bullpen guy, Javier Lopez that can probably be used as a closer elsewhere. Detroit would love a guy like that. The Dodgers have really picked it up since they promoted Puig to the majors and really gave them some life. They made a deal to bring Nolasco to help the starters and I don’t think they are done. Getting Matt Kemp back healthy would be like trading for an upgrade also. Arizona is hanging onto first for dear life, but I still think they will drop out of the playoff hunt, but probably not 4th like I originally predicted.

AL East
1) Tampa Bay Rays      [2]    A
2) Toronto Blue Jays    [5]     D
3) Boston Red Sox       [1]    A
4) New York Yankees   [4]    B-
5) Baltimore Orioles      [3]    B+

Analysis: So I was completely wrong about Toronto and Baltimore, but that’s okay. I still think Tampa will take the division and they are only 2.5 games out of first to start the second half. They always seem to make a second half run and they are better mid-season this year than they have been in the past. I like Baltimore’s team especially if Chris Davis, Adam Jones, and the rest of their lineup can keep up the pace, but they won’t be able to do it without another starter. Maybe Matt Garza is in their future. Boston is hanging in there and still has a great chance to make the playoffs, but the end of their bullpen has had injury issues and Clay Bucholtz needs to come back healthy as Jon Lester has been struggling. The Yankees should get Derek Jeter back soon and possibly A-Rod, but I still don’t think they have much of a chance this season.

AL Central
1) Detroit Tigers             [1]   A
2) Cleveland Indians      [2]   B+
3) Chicago White Sox    [5]   D-
4) Kansas City Royals    [3]   B
5) Minnesota Twins        [4]   D

Analysis: The Tigers will look to improve their team for the playoffs because they will definitely be getting in. Miguel Cabrera is having another incredible season and their pitching staff has been impressive as well. Many didn’t think Cleveland would be hanging around as long as they have, but I liked their team to start the season, but can they hang on? Aside from the last week, KC had brought themselves back up and is making it a race somewhat. A young team that is starting to put it together and they have a bright future, but probably not this season.

AL West
1) Los Angeles Angels  [3]    D
2) Oakland Athletics     [1]    A+
3) Seattle Mariners       [4]    C
4) Texas Rangers        [2]    B+
5) Houston Astros        [5]    F

Analysis: The Oakland Athletics are the most enjoyable team to watch in the AL, and quite possibly the league. They have a ton of likable guys and a lot of talent. I foresee them making moves at the trade deadline and may be a good destination for Chase Utley or Carlos Ruiz. The Angels are one of those teams that had high expectations yet again going into this season and is just not performing. They have high priced guys like Josh Hamilton, CJ Wilson, and Albert Pujols that just aren’t putting up great numbers and may be making too much to trade away. Texas has been one of the most consistent teams in the majors over the last 5 seasons and they continue to do it with both pitching and hitting. They are a shoe in for the playoffs, its just a matter of beating out Oakland for home field and NOT the wild card.

National League Grade Book: May

NL East
1) Atlanta Braves              (C)
2) Washington Nationals   (C-)
3) Philadelphia Phillies      (D)
4) New York Mets             (D-)
5) Miami Marlins               (F)

Analysis: First of all I’ll say, what is up with this division. If you saw the numbers from the month of May, you would think Atlanta should be running away with the division as early as it is. Before I touch on the rest of the division, maybe I’m a little critical of Atlanta since they had such a great first month and I still believe they’ll take it all the way to the World Series. They scored over 120 runs, but gave up 110. Not the ratio you would want, but makes sense they went 15-13 for the month. They still have B.J. Upton struggling with the bat and their pitching wasn’t as good (but still good) for the month. They were unable to capitalize on the poor month the rest of the division had. The grade was purely given based on unable to take advantage of the rest of the division’s piss poor play.

The rest of the division didn’t even score over 100 runs, which also means the rest of the division gave up more runs overall than what they scored. Now wonder why Atlanta is only up by 4.5 games in the division. Washington would be the only other team making a run at them and their offense is stinking it up to say it lightly. Stratsburg hasn’t been great, Gio Gonzalez dropped off and Dan Haren has gotten better, but is still inconsistent. They also went 15-13 for the month, so they should be satisfied they aren’t too far down in the standings.

It only gets worse from here folks. The Phillies went 14-14 for the month, but they only scored 92 runs and gave up 120. Yikes. Cole Hamels is on a massive decline, Roy Halladay may not just be out for the season, but for his career, and Cliff Lee is not the ace he used to be. Maybe it’s time to revamp this team completely.

The New York Mets got a B+ from me last month, but this month not so much. They also struggled with the bat and also in their rotation. They went 12-15 (which includes a sweep of the NY Yankees) and they scored a measly 88 runs and gave up 126 runs. Double yikes. This is probably what was expected more along the lines of what they had in April. Not sure if there will be much improving, but sweeping the other New York team is a good start.

Oh it does get worse from here when the team I thought would be the worst in the league and possibly worst ever is in this division. I’m talking about the Miami Marlins. They went 6-22 for the month and the only surprising part of that is they TIED for the worst in the league for the month of May. They managed to score 79 runs and gave up 121, which isn’t a shock when they don’t have anyone to drive in runs. Giancarlo Stanton would be the only one that could do it and he’s sitting on the DL. It’s sad to watch, but if you get a laugh over a sad team, then they would be the one to watch.

NL Central
1) Cincinnati Reds        (A)
2) St. Louis Cardinals   (A+)
3) Pittsburgh Pirates     (A)
4) Milwaukee Brewers  (F)
5) Chicago Cubs           (C+)

Analysis: This division is the complete opposite of what I spoke about in the NL East. Like I thought when I first predicted these standings above, any of those top 3 teams can finish in first and they always seem to switch their positioning. The Reds get an A for this month and that’s after going 19-8, scoring 136 runs while giving up 93 runs. Out of all of that they are tied for 2nd place at the end of May. Seriously? Yeah, it gets better from here. The Reds offense is in full stride and their starting pitching down to their bullpen and closer is excellent. A fully fundamental team to watch.

So how are the Reds an A and the Cardinals get an A+? Well at the moment they are sitting in first place after going 20-7 in the month of May. Purely dominating. They scored 133 runs and gave up 85. The more impressive part for me which earned them the A+ is that they ALWAYS seem to struggle with guys getting injured, but it doesn’t mean they struggle in performing. They have injuries in the infield and also in their starting pitching AND bullpen. They just have guys that fill in and step up to the plate (no pun intended). Rookie pitcher Shelby Miller has acted as an ace and they will continue to improve as the season progresses.

The Penguins aren’t the only good team in Pittsburgh right now. The Pirates are sitting tied for 2nd at the end of May with the Reds after going 19-9. The runs scored surely drops with the Pirates and as I mentioned for the month of April, I think they can use another big bat in the lineup. But they are that type of scrappy team that can win games 1-0, because their pitching only gave up 76 runs for the whole month of May. What an incredible top 3 teams in this division, it would be a shame if any of these teams miss out on the playoffs.

So I hope you enjoyed the stats for the first 3 teams I mentioned because it gets a ton worse from here. I mentioned earlier that the Miami Marlins tied with the worst record in May with a team and that team happens to be Milwaukee. Who thought that would be the team? A team that has Ryan Braun swinging the bat and Gallardo on the mound, you would think they’d have more than 6 wins in a month, right? Wrong. They went 6-22, and who is looking forward to the Marlins vs. Brewers series? They’ve given up a whopping 148 runs while only scoring 98. There’s only one place to go from here and that’s up…for their sake.

I gave the Cubs a C+ and that’s a little deceiving maybe. They are under .500 by 7 games, but they finished the month on a 5 game winning streak. They also got Matt Garza back from the DL, which adds a consistent starter to the rotation. The hitting has started to pick it up, including Rizzo who got on a hot streak in the beginning of the month. They finished the month with a 13-14 record, but they scored 129 runs and gave up 99 runs. They definitely improved and maybe they will continue to do so, but still shouldn’t compete with the big 3 in this division.

NL West
1) San Francisco Giants     (C-)
2) Los Angeles Dodgers     (F)
3) San Diego Padres          (C+)
4) Arizona Diamondbacks  (B+)
5) Colorado Rockies          (D)

Analysis: So I guess the Central is the only good division in the National League for the month of May. I still believe the Giants will take the division, but they have looked mediocre as of late. They currently sit in 2nd place only 1 game behind 1st and even though they finished going 14-13 for the month, I believe they hung in there because they win games that matter. What I mean by that is they win games within their division. Their pitching has struggled over the last month with Cain giving up too many long balls, Lincecum hasn’t found his groove, and Zito lost his mojo from April. This team is way too talented to fall off, so I think they will have a very good June.

Unlike the other team in LA, the Dodgers have not improved. They are also dealing with tons of injuries from the pitching staff to their infield and outfield, with the latest victim being Matt Kemp. In all reality, Matt Kemp wasn’t putting up stellar numbers anyway, so what are they missing from this? Don Mattingly seemed to stir up the pot after sitting Ethier for “not trying” and they just don’t have an identity in their lineup when players are always getting a day off. I still don’t know what their lineup really looks like. They need more than Kershaw to make progress in this division. I think they need to make a coaching staff in order for this team to put something together. They finished May by going 10-17 and scoring under 100 runs. The amount of money spent on their offense, that is clearly unacceptable.

The Padres get a C+ even thought they finished May by going 14-13, which actually happens to be 2nd best in their division. They’ve played in tight games all month and they aren’t a push over. Do I still think they’ll finish the division in 3rd? Not really, but they have so many young players that may not have much to play for towards the end of the year, they may play spoilers. I’ll still keep my eye on them.

Before the season I definitely thought Arizona was going through a major facelift by trading Justin Upton and they just have too many outfielders in knowing what to do with them, but the refreshing part about the D-Backs is their pitching rotation, and I’m not even talking about Ian Kennedy. They have been getting great performances from Corbin and Miley for the first 2 months of the season. The pitching staff is where it happens for this team and as long as they have that they’ll compete for division.

I didn’t give Colorado any credit leading up into the season and they got a good grade from me last month, but this month they dropped down as I expected. They scored 120 and gave up 120, so they are just about average right now. Their pitching staff came back down to Earth and I see a steady decline from them starting June 1st.

National League Grade Book: April

NL East

1) Atlanta Braves           (A+)
2) Washington Nationals    (C)
3) Philadelphia Phillies       (D)
4) New York Mets               (B+)
5) Miami Marlins                 (F)

Analysis: Atlanta is right where I thought they would be. They are clearly the strongest team not just in the offensive side, but also in pitching. They have a strong rotation, bullpen, and probably the strongest to close it out with Kimbrell. They are at around a +40 runs for/against differential with one month down and they can win both at home and on the road. Justin Upton is tearing it up in his new uniform and can you imagine how they will be when BJ Upton breaks his slump and they get Brian McCann and Beachy back from the DL. They are on track for my World Series prediction.

Washington gets an average grade from me. They have not looked great at all and really in the pitching department. When they played Atlanta at home, Atlanta crushed them in the 3-game series. Strasburg has looked beatable, not to mention Gio Gonzalez’s stuff has looked soft. Bryce Harper has gotten off to a great start, but not much help elsewhere with Ryan Zimmerman hitting the DL already. I think they’ll climb out of it, but I don’t see them as a sinking ship just yet.

Philadelphia I expected more out of. Ryan Howard has been hitting decently, but not with power. Actually, Philadelphia as a whole hasn’t been hitting with much power at all. Their pitching has been spotty so far especially from Cole Hamels and Cliff Lee. The question is will they break the slump, will they give prospects a chance, or will they trade for help. A little too early to tell just yet.

New York has looked like a good team, but the worry is will they stay healthy. If recent years tell you anything then the answer is no. Matt Harvey has looked outstanding to start the season and their offense is another team where you may not recognize a lot of names, but they are putting up lots of runs in the early going.

Miami’s section I’ll keep to a minimum, just like their run production. They may be the worst team in the league or at least compete hard for that role. They don’t enjoy scoring runs or really even getting on base. Giancarlo Stanton was out for about a week with an injury, but managed to stay of the DL. He started slow last year as well and got hot in May. The problem with that is, if he gets hot in May, look to see the Marlins ship him out of Miami and really take a nose dive.

NL Central
1) Cincinnati Reds        (B+)
2) St. Louis Cardinals   (A-)
3) Pittsburgh Pirates     (B)
4) Milwaukee Brewers  (C)
5) Chicago Cubs           (D)

Analysis: Cincinnati only gets a B+ from me. I know, I know. Why so harsh for a team who has already scored over 110 runs after the first month. Mainly because it was expected that they would be doing something like that. The only quirk I have with the Reds right now is they had a very heavy home schedule for the first month and have dominated with it. They had a light road schedule and struggled with it so far. I expect that to change over time.

St. Louis is always near the top aren’t they? They get an A- because they are not only scoring runs, but they aren’t giving up a lot either. They aren’t a pretty team, but they always seem to get the job done. It’s that scrappy type of team that wins games with hit and runs, stealing bases, and bunting the runners over. They’ll compete with Cincinnati all year and should be enjoyable.

Pittsburgh also gets a good grade from even though they have been struggling with run production, but their pitching has kept them in games. They are about even with runs for/against and I think in this division they have the opportunity to finish middle of the pack. If they hang in there long enough, maybe they’ll make some trades to boost up that pitching staff.

Milwaukee gets an average grade from me, but that’s not a bad thing. They’ve performed a lot better than I had expected they would be, but again it’s still early into the year. They have been performing much like Pittsburgh has, but they’ve scored more runs, but also given up more. I think the lack of pitching will catch up with them in no time.

Chicago is not a surprise to be stuck in the cellar this early in the year. Truthfully, they haven’t looked much better than the Marlins. Rizzo leads the club in homers, but he’s hitting under .200. They are still without Matt Garza and they keep giving Carlos Marmol opportunities to close out games. Why wouldn’t this club give Sandberg a chance to manage? I’d look to see them continue to drop out of contention and probably trade away Soriano to a team looking for a bat. Gotta feel bad for those Cubs fans.

NL West
1) San Francisco Giants     (B-)
2) Los Angeles Dodgers     (F)
3) San Diego Padres          (F)
4) Arizona Diamondbacks   (B)
5) Colorado Rockies           (A)

Analysis: First of all, this division is crazy to start the season and not at all as I expected. The San Francisco Giants gets a pretty good grade to start the season, which are lead by Buster Posey. Their strong part of their team always remains their pitching staff led by Matt Cain and Tim Lincecum, but Barry Zito has gotten off to a nice impressive start and Madison Bumgarner is continuing to show his skill. I think the Giants are in a good spot and will only improve.

I’m going to be harsh with the Los Angeles Dodgers because they are my home team and get to follow them a lot. There’s a lot of things I can say, but I’ll keep it G rated and say they are just lame. They struggle with scoring runs and knocking in runners in scoring position. They have a ton of injuries including Greinke and Billingsley. The bright spot has been Carl Crawford and Clayton Kershaw. Adrian Gonzalez has also looked sharp, but the problem is the lineup in general and the lack of runs being scored. (No mention of Matt Kemp is intentional). They are in the same situation as the Angels as I’m concerned. If they don’t figure it out soon, expect some firings.

San Diego also gets an F and that probably shouldn’t be a surprise. I did pick them to finish 3rd in this division, but I expected growing pains. I thought they would make more of a run toward the end of the year when they start bringing up prospects. As bad as they have been, they are around the same run differential as the Dodgers. Ouch.

Arizona has shown great offense in the first month of the season. Their pitching has been average as well and I expect them to keep it up. I think they have a high ceiling for their success this season especially if Adam Eaton gets healthy and they bring him up to the Majors around the All-Star break. They are also enjoyable to watch and a greatly managed team.

Colorado has been a shock to me. I picked them to finish last and there is still a chance for that, but they had a great first month to the season. They are among the tops of runs scored in the National League and they have been great at home, where runs are obviously scored. They have had strong offensive production from CarGo, Tulo, Helton and Fowler. The problem is I don’t know many of their pitchers. Actually, I know one. De La Rosa is their ace and the rest of their starters are: Garland, Nicasio, and Francis. Can the starters keep up the good work? We’ll see where they end up next month.

It’s Fall…It Must be Playoff Season

The Major League Baseball playoffs start officially tomorrow. The brand new wild card, one game playoff games are set up to start tomorrow for both the AL and NL. In the AL you have the Baltimore Orioles at the Texas Rangers and in the NL you have the St. Louis Cardinals at the Atlanta Braves. The only team that knew they would be playing on this day for sure was the Atlanta Braves who locked up a playoff spot earlier than the rest of the pack and knew they would also be getting a home game. The Cardinals were fighting off the Reds to close out the season trying to hold of the Dodgers from taking the final spot in the NL. In the American League, Baltimore was fighting for division down to the last game of the season with the New York Yankees. As for the Athletics, they also were fighting for division which they earned by beating the Texas Rangers to put the Rangers right into the one game playoff which sets up an interesting match up with Baltimore.

National League 

St. Louis Cardinals – Starting Pitcher: Kyle Lohse
at
Atlanta Braves – Starting Pitcher: Kris Medlen
Time: 5:07pm EST / 2:07pm PST TBS
Analysis: I’m a little bias when it comes to this game or the Braves in general because I have money on the Braves to win the World Series. The winner of this game will play the Washington Nationals in the next series. Kris Medlen will be starting the game for the Braves and he has pitched outstanding in the second half of this season. If he can get a solid 6 or 7 innings in, the middle to closing relief for the Braves can be dominating. They were essentially knocked out by the Cardinals last year during their collapse and I’m sure they would love to knock out the defending champions out. With the Cardinals, Kyle Lohse has been ace material all year for St. Louis and may give the best opportunity to win a one game playoff. The Cardinals turned on their offensive fire power once they made the playoffs last year and that’s what they have to rely on here. If they don’t jump on Medlen early, it might not end well for St. Louis if they have to climb back in it.
Prediction: Atlanta Braves

American League

Baltimore Orioles – Starting Pitcher: Joe Saunders
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Texas Rangers – Starting Pitcher: Yu Darvish
Time: 8:37pm EST / 5:37pm PST TBS
Analysis: The winner of this game will play the New York Yankees. Everybody thought the Orioles would die off their hot start and they never did. They had a chance to win division until the very last game of the season. On the other side, the Texas Rangers led the AL West for the majority of the season and lost it at the end to Oakland. Darvish has been hot in his last 5 or 6 starts and is probably the best option for them to win in a win or go home scenario. Although, with the Orioles playing as well as they have been, I see that being a lot of the momentum they need to overcome a high powered offense in Texas. I’m going with the sleeper and upset.
Prediction: Baltimore Orioles

As for the other two series’ that will get underway on Saturday involve the Detroit Tigers, Oakland Athletics, San Francisco Giants, and the Cincinnati Reds. I believe that most people expected the Reds and the Tigers to be playing into October, but how they made it here I’m not quite sure anyone expected. The Tigers didn’t run away with their division and really took control once the White Sox struggled in the last two weeks of the season. The Reds did lead their division for most of the second half, but not after the Pirates, Cardinals, and even the Brewers were fighting for their spot when eventually the Reds ran away with it. Oakland was a surprise team all year and they have a lot of young pitchers who have played very well who eventually overtook Texas. The Giants battled with the Dodgers for the division for most of the season, but really conquered them in the second half, even with the suspension to Melky Cabrera.

Oakland Athletics – Starting Pitcher: Jarrod Parker
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Detroit Tigers – Starting Pitcher: Justin Verlander
Game 1: October 6th 6:07pm EST / 3:07pm PST TBS
Analysis: The benefit starting this season of winning your division gets you to set up your pitchers the way you would like and just jump into the best of five game series. The obvious game 1 starter for Detroit is Justin Verlander and in the playoffs he is lights out. On top of Verlander making it difficult for Oakland, they also have a triple crown winner in Miguel Cabrera that will torment the pitching staff. Oakland has the momentum and may win a game in this series. If they win game 1, I think they’ll win the series. But having game 1 in Detroit with arguably one of the best pitchers in the American League, and a great offense that is just starting to get hot might be too much to overcome.
Prediction: Detroit Tigers in 4 Games

Cincinnati Reds – Starting Pitcher: Johnny Cueto
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San Francisco Giants – Starting Pitcher: Matt Cain
Game 1: October 6th 9:37pm EST / 6:37pm PST
Analysis: This is a great series and it’s a shame a team has to lose. This series has a little bit of everything. Both offenses are powerful, both starting pitching staffs are powerful, and the closers have been sharp for both teams all season. The Reds has had good teams entering the playoffs before and they always seem to get a tough match up. Cueto will be in the running for the NL Cy Young this season by going 19-9 with a 2.78 ERA and the obvious ace for Cincinnati. Matt Cain had a solid season as well and the advantage the Giants have is they play the first 2 games at home. Look for some exciting pitching match ups as well as some power surges. This series should be a must watch for any baseball fan.
Prediction: Cincinnati Reds in 5 Games

Two teams that I did not talk about in this post is the New York Yankees and the Washington Nationals. Both teams match up with the winners of the one game wild card games on Friday. Both teams had excellent seasons and both teams are stacked in pitching and in hitting. The one down side which has been previously discussed by many is Stephen Strasburg being unavailable in the playoffs. If the Nationals get the Braves, they have a tough series to worry about. If they get the Cardinals, I feel they can get past them a lot easier as they match up better against them in a short series. If the Yankees play Texas, I think this could be the year the Yankees slide by Texas, only because Texas has been on a slight slide themselves. This is where the advantage of winning division comes into play where the Yankees will have CC Sabathia in game 1 where Texas won’t be able to use Yu Darvish. If the Yankees play Baltimore, I worry that the Yankees won’t be able to get by. It’s a tougher match up where the Yankees struggled against the birds and they have played them in more games.

It shapes out to be a great post season with hopefully some great endings!  

The Debatable Future

As of this date of September 3, 2012, the Washington Nationals are in first place in their division and up by 6.5 games with a record of 82-52. The debatable future is within the organization of handling the Stephen Strasburg “situation”. Last season, Strasburg had Tommy John surgery and the Nationals announced that he would have an innings limit for this season. I don’t believe Washington knew that their team would be so ahead of the curve and would be in this position in early September. They are looking at getting into the playoffs and currently have the best record in the majors.

Other than their Strasburg, the Nationals are stacked with great players both in their rotation, bullpen, and offensively. Ryan Zimmerman is finally starting to come around and their injured stars (Jayson Werth and Michael Morse) are both back and healthy. Additionally, during the season the Nationals brought up their other young star, Bryce Harper. Harper has gone through some struggles this season, but is putting up good numbers, as expected. They play in a division in which has been ruled by the Phillies and Braves for years and all the hype going into this season was on the Marlins. The Nationals have kept up the pace and remain in 1st and in great position going into October.

It’s hard to pick out a problem with everything mentioned. The big controversy in all of this is that with such a large lead in the NL East and almost a sure bet to make it to the post season, the Nationals organization have a tough decision to make on whether or not to keep Strasburg in the rotation or to bench him for the remainder of the season (including the playoffs). The Nationals announced that Strasburg has two more starts this season and will make his last start on September 12, 2012. I understand that they want to rest their star player, their future, the organization’s best player and not risk him injuring his arm again. However, making the playoffs year after year is not a sure bet. MLB implemented having two wild card teams for each league this season, so yes, Washington has more of a chance making it to the playoffs, but do they know if Strasburg will stay healthy his whole career? Cal Ripken Jr. made it to the World Series in his first season and didn’t make it back since. There is never sure bet for any great player to have the opportunity to make and even WIN the World Series. It’s not easy making a decision on this especially when fans want to see him have the opportunity to pitch in the playoffs. However, Washington was put in an even better position by playing great all season. They have had a decent share of 1st place for the majority of this season and knew all year they would have Strasburg on an innings count. What I’m asking is why wouldn’t the Nationals plan better and have had him make his last start in August. Possibly even use him only out of the bullpen to pitch 2 or 3 innings here or there. Then at least he would be available in the playoffs. I’ve also heard from fans and bulletin posts, why save the kid’s arm if he’s just going to leave to go to a team like the Yankees, Angels, Red Sox when his contract ends?

In my opinion, I think the Nationals really screwed up this situation and could have handled it a lot better. Not to say that Washington will change their mind if they make it to the NLCS, game 7, must win to get to the World Series. How tempting would it be to just say, “What’s 7 more innings going to do?”. If you are really content about not having him pitch another inning this year, can you even have him sit in the dugout during the playoff push, playoffs, and possibly World Series? The Nationals have a great team and have a good rotation, but in a short series, not having your best pitcher may be costly. Looking into the short future of next season, the Phillies aren’t expected to be bad two years in a row. The dealt with injury issues from the start of this year with Ryan Howard and Chase Utley. Roy Halladay has been fighting injuries much of this season and Cliff Lee struggled. The Marlins showed last offseason that they may be a different team in trying to bring more top stars to south beach. The Braves would have made the playoffs last season if they didn’t choke in September and they would be in first place in any other division if it weren’t for the Nationals being hot all season.

The Nationals should look at the current moment and realize they are in the driver’s seat on what may be their fate this season. They should take advantage of what they might have. They can still save Strasburg’s arm and have him start his last game of the season on September 12th as planned. But using him in the bullpen or maybe make spot stars, as in a one game playoff, 6th game elimination game, or a 7th game of the NLCS or World Series. No one knows how the season will turn out for the Nationals, but we will all see how it ends in October.