MLB Predictions – 2014

It’s that time of year again and I obviously waited until the last possible moment to do my predictions. Some people would even say I’m a little late.. 2 games late.. if you count the 2 game series between the Arizona Diamondbacks and the Los Angeles Dodgers which was played in Australia last weekend. Those two games won’t affect my predictions so I think I’m okay there. The Boston Red Sox won the World Series last year and the good thing there is a new season is on the brink and everyone has a chance. Lets get to it!

AL East

1) Tampa Bay Rays
2) Boston Red Sox
3) Baltimore Orioles
4) New York Yankees
5) Toronto Blue Jays
Analysis: For years this division has been the toughest in baseball, but not this season. I picked Tampa last year to get to the World Series, but they battled a lot of injuries and didn’t have such a great offensive season. I think they will be a little different this year and they are always surrounded by young stars in the pitching rotation. Boston still has a strong team, but will their bullpen be as sharp as last year? Will they stay away from injuries and will their young stars be consistent all season? Baltimore may make a run for the wild card, but it’s their pitching that concerns me more than their hitting.

AL Central
1) Detroit Tigers
2) Kansas City Royals
3) Minnesota Twins
4) Cleveland Indians
5) Chicago White Sox
Analysis: I still believe the Tigers will finish in first in their division even without Jim Leyland and first year manager, Brad Ausmus. They still have the best team, hitting wise and pitching wise in their division and maybe possibly the whole American League. The teams that follow them are still wide open to me and I think two surprises will be the Royals and the Twins. The Indians can still put together a good year and compete for 2nd place but I think the Royals and Twins have more depth to last through the season.

AL West
1) Oakland Athletics
2) Seattle Mariners
3) Texas Rangers
4) Los Angeles Angels
5) Houston Astros
Analysis: This is a tough division to predict, but my gut tells me that Oakland will be the team to break out so that’s what I’m going with. I hate to also buy onto all the offseason moves that Seattle made, but aside from their young offensive players and the signing of Robinson Cano, their pitching staff doesn’t look too bad and they have a reliable closer to string together wins. The Rangers always have the ability to finish in first, but I have them in third since they got off to a rough start with injuries. With the Angels, this may be the year where Scioscia gets canned and I still don’t think it’s all his fault. They are offensively stacked, but also aging with Josh Hamilton and Albert Pujols if they ever return to form. They don’t have the depth in pitching to hang on all season and Mike Trout won’t be able to carry them 162 games this year.

AL Playoffs
1) Detroit Tigers
2) Oakland Athletics
3) Tampa Bay Rays
Wild Card
4) Boston Red Sox
5) Baltimore Orioles

AL Champions
Oakland Athletics

NL East
1) Washington Nationals
2) Atlanta Braves
3) Philadelphia Phillies
4) Miami Marlins
5) New York Mets
Analysis: This was a competitive division a few years ago and it’s getting less and less. I liked Atlanta in the offseason and even last season, but they have taken big hits with injuries in their starting rotation. They also have a lot of inconsistencies in hitting with Uggla and BJ Upton who never really came around last season. The Nationals are really building a beast for Matt Williams and I think they have the ability to win well over 100 games this year if they stay healthy for the most part. The Phillies will be competitive and may be just on the outside of the Wild Card race. I think they’ll have a better year than most “experts” expect. I also took the Marlins out of the cellar. I think they have pieces to grow and to be… eh, decent?

NL Central
1) Pittsburgh Pirates
2) St. Louis Cardinals
3) Cincinnati Reds
4) Milwaukee Brewers
5) Chicago Cubs
Analysis: This is undoubtedly one of the best divisions in all of baseball. The race of the top 3 will be an exciting one once again and maybe add a fourth with the Brewers who have a, not-so-bad starting rotation and the return of their MVP, Ryan Braun. The Pirates and Cardinals will fight it out for most of the year, but I think the potential is that the top 3 (as I have it) will all be playing at least a game in the post-season. It’s hard to pick the Cubs to break the mold with the lack of offensive firepower. They will have to make some moves to show they can compete with these teams.

NL West
1) Los Angeles Dodgers
2) San Francisco Giants
3) San Diego Padres
4) Colorado Rockies
5) Arizona Diamondbacks
Analysis: Are the Dodgers the team to beat in the National League? Living in LA I would say most people would think so, but I’m not too sure. They are starting the season with attitude issues with Puig, Kershaw and Kemp on the DL. I think the Giants can give them fits for first place, at least for the first half of the season. The Giants went through injuries last year that caused a down year, but they have a good core offensively and they always have their strong pitching to lean on (watch for Lincecum to have a bounce back season).

NL Playoffs
1) Washington Nationals
2) Los Angeles Dodgers
3) Pittsburgh Pirates
Wild Card
4) St. Louis Cardinals
5) San Francisco Giants

NL Champions
Los Angeles Dodgers

World Series Champions
Los Angeles Dodgers over Oakland Athletics

If all goes into my predictions this team will become victorious. It won’t be an easy season for them and I know they are the favorites going into this season (based on Vegas odds), the favorites are the Dodgers and the Tigers to go to the World Series in their respective Leagues. The Dodgers will have to fight through the pressure and the expectations of a huge salary cap, lots of star players, and lots of egos and competing with the National League which is stronger than the American League (in my opinion). If they get there, they will have to be solid in the bullpen, fight through injuries, possibly make some trades mid year, to figure out the outfield situation of having Kemp, Ethier, Crawford, and Puig and also fight through stability in their rotation. Let the season begin!

American League Grade Book: May

The baseball regular season is in full stride as the 2nd month of the season comes to a close. It’s funny how the standings can change drastically from one month to another. Usually by the time June rolls around, there is a strong sense of what type of teams you have that will be contenders in October. Out of all honesty, I was disappointed with some of the performances by teams across the league in April. The month of May was a new beginning for many teams and the saying for baseball is, “its not a sprint, it’s a marathon” is as true as it gets when there is such a long season in front of these teams.

I’ll continue to rank these teams by the way I predicted it to go during spring training. Lets jump right in!

American League

AL East
1) Tampa Bay Rays    (B)
2) Toronto Blue Jays  (D)
3) Boston Red Sox     (C)
4) New York Yankees (C)
5) Baltimore Orioles   (B)

Analysis: I give Tampa Bay a B and that’s even saying that Tampa is currently in 2nd to last place in their division. I still have confidence that it won’t end that way. It just shows how bad the first month of the season was for the Rays. They’ve been streaking in the win department over the last week of the month. Their pitching has been great, lead by Matt Moore (not David Price). Price landed himself on the DL and you look at a Rays team who found their offense and is finding a way to win games. They were 18-10 in the month of May, which is the best in the AL East. Continue to watch this team climb up the standings.

Toronto still disappoints me and truthfully, I’m disappointed in myself for picking a team to finish so high in the standings when they haven’t proved anything quite yet. They are team plagued with injuries and their pitching staff has been a massive disappointment thus far. They were 13-14 in the month of May, which was worst in the division. Lets just say they need to do everything a little better to climb the standings, which is tough to do when you have such a competitive division.

The Red Sox get a C, which is not bad, nor is it good. They are right in the middle or just average to me right now. They also went through a string of injuries with David Ortiz, Middlebrooks, Bailey, Hanrahan, and most recently Clay Bucholtz (which may not be too serious). They finish the month in first place, which is obviously better than I was hoping to see or expecting. This month was a decline for them as they finished the month going 15-15. Average right? If they get healthy, I still see this team hanging around for a little longer.

The Yankees got swept by the Mets. That may be the first time that I can remember that happening for quite some time. The Yankees have also been average to me and their record in May shows that as they went 15-13. The offense for the Yankees is not what you expect to see, especially in recent years, yet they still seem to be hanging in there. I’m not sure how long they’ll stick on the top of the division if injuries keep piling up. That’s the number one priority for this team if they plan to make the playoffs and that’s getting their lineup healthy.

Baltimore has still impressed me. I picked them to finish last after having such a great season last year. I thought the youth in their team would shine through, but Buck is doing a great job coaching the Orioles. Their offense is stacked and on paper they look like an excellent team and they are getting great pitching from a rotation that do not have any house hold names. I’m convinced this team isn’t going to disappear.

AL Central
1) Detroit Tigers            (C)
2) Cleveland Indians     (A)
3) Chicago White Sox   (C)
4) Kansas City Royals   (F)
5) Minnesota Twins       (D)

Analysis: So this is starting to sort the way I imagined, however, I still don’t see the Tigers doing what they SHOULD be doing. Maybe I’m being too critical of Detroit, but I feel like they should have a much better record with the type of offense they have and most definitely the pitching they have. I feel like every time the pitching staff delivers a gem, they get no offense to support it. I think eventually they’ll hit the gas and keep their foot on the pedal, but right now they haven’t reached that point for me.

Cleveland is exactly where I thought. Again, not to toot my own horn, but I had a feeling they would be competing. They were a division best going 18-12 in the month of May and scoring over 140 runs. That’s approximately 4.6 runs a game, which will always give you a chance to win ballgames. Their pitching has dropped off since the opening month, but when you’re offense is hot, it makes things easier for sure. They’ve struggled the last week of the month, but so has the rest of the division.

The White Sox are a little tricky still I feel. I don’t think they’ve found their identity yet and if they haven’t found it, then I have no clue. They were about .500 for the month of May, they are under .500 on the season record, but they are hanging in 3rd place. That may have a little to do with the bottom feeders of the division, but as long as they hang in there, they can always make a few moves to improve the team. Specifically on the offensive side as they scored less than 100 runs this month.

Oh boy, here’s my analysis on the Royals. They were bad….very, very, very bad. I gave them a B last month, but they get an F this month and it wasn’t even a hard decision. They went a whopping 8-20 this last month scoring just above 100 runs. Not much to say about them other than they have such young hitters and none of them have amounted to anything. It’s definitely a struggle to watch, but maybe they can get some talent for James Shields if they look to trade him at the deadline, because I know any contender would love to have him.

Minnesota has not been much better. They got a B+ from me last month and they moved down to a D. I knew last month may have just been a fluke of the opening month to a season. They went 12-17 in May and even though they scored 130 runs this month, their pitching has been atrocious by giving up around 150. Continue to see this team decline, they need a lot of help.

AL West
1) LA Angels             (A)
2) Oakland Athletics  (B+)
3) Seattle Mariners    (C-)
4) Texas Rangers      (A+)
5) Houston Astros      (F)

Analysis: Look who finally decided to show up…Yeah, I’m talking about the Angels. I gave them a full swing by giving them an F last month and an A this month. Needless to say, the offense woke up. They score over 130 runs and their offense has pulled a lot of games together and has looked impressive. Josh Hamilton and Albert Pujols is finally getting in the flow of things, while their pitching has been solid as well. What’s even better than that? They get Jared Weaver back from the DL. They are still under .500 for the season, but in the month of May they  went 16-12. You can continue to watch the Angels climb up.

The Athletics are continuing to stay consistent. I’m not really surprised as I thought they’d finish 2nd, but the question is, can the offense continue to step it up. They got Coco Crisp and Cespedes back from the DL, but they are getting massive offensive production from Donaldson and Seth Smith that needs to continue.  I fully expect the A’s to make a move at the trade deadline, especially in the pitching rotation. They have Colon and a bunch of young arms that haven’t done too well, but are keeping them in games.

The Mariners are getting frustrating. Morse has been injury prone for most of this month and they are just average once again this month. The only constant successful point on their team is King Felix and that isn’t a surprise to anybody. I thought the young offensive talent they had would start to light it up, but I haven’t seen that yet. Maybe a coaching change in the near future?

I didn’t expect this at all from Texas, and that’s obvious from where I put them in my predictions. It just proves how great of a manager Ron Washington has been for them. As I said last month about the Rangers is that they always seem to lose their talent to other teams, but they hang around and they just know how to groom talent in their farm and that’s always respectable. They were a division best 17-11 in the month of May with no sights of slowing down.

From one team in Texas to the next are on two opposite ends of the spectrum. Houston made the move into the American League this year and unfortunately for them, they got placed into a division that has teams like Texas, Los Angeles, and Oakland who are all capable of finishing in 1st place. Houston went 9-18 in the month of May and that came as expected. They now only have 17 wins for the season, which is worst in the American League. The only good thing is they seem to have the Angels’ number so far in the young season.

Stay tuned for my grade book for the National League for the month of May!

American League Grade Book: April

The first month of the baseball season has come and gone and there are some teams that made some strong impressions for both good and the bad. I will list the teams below as I picked them to finish and put a grade letter next to them (“A+” being the best and “F” being the worst). I’ll had some critiques as well, as usual.

American League

AL East
1) Tampa Bay Rays      (D)
2) Toronto Blue Jays     (F)
3) Boston Red Sox       (B)
4) New York Yankees   (C)
5) Baltimore Orioles     (B+)

Analysis: Tampa Bay has been lackluster to start this season, especially their offense which is non-existent. If they expect to win the division, they have to score runs when runners are in position. Of course its only the first month of the season, but they’ve shown struggles scoring runs and also getting victories on the road.

Toronto has been the most disappointing. It seems to happen every year with higher hopes that the team will break through and get into the playoffs. They made a lot of acquisitions in the off-season which has panned out for them yet. Their pitching has been atrocious and of course it doesn’t help that Jose Reyes is already on the DL.

Boston as a city as been through a lot in April, but their baseball team is better than most expected them to be. Hanrahan got dinged up early and thought maybe it’s another long year for the Boston bullpen. Andrew Bailey stepped in great and their offense has looked good. Just in time for Ortiz that returned from the DL towards the end of the month, but Clay Bucholtz has been unbelievable for the first month.

New York is right where I expected them to be. Their pitching has been average, but mostly keeping them in games with a not-so-great offense. A lot of their offensive players are older players that may not amount to anything when the season ends. But the Yankees need them to hang on until they get their star power back in the lineup.

Baltimore has the best grade in this division from me for the month of April. Mainly because I had them finishing dead last. They have almost the same team as they did last year with a lot of young talent. Their offense has looked sharp, especially Adam Jones. I’d be interested to see where they are at the end of May.

AL Central
1) Detroit Tigers             (C)
2) Cleveland Indians      (C)
3) Chicago White Sox    (D)
4) Kansas City Royals    (B)
5) Minnesota Twins        (B+)

Analysis: Detroit gets an average grade from me only because one would expect so much from a team of that caliber. They will be fine by the end of the season, but the first month of the season they got off to a slow start. Verlander hasn’t looked to be the top pitcher you would expect, but again, not worried, it’s still very early in the year.

Cleveland also gets an average grade from me. Their offense has had the spurts I knew they had the potential for. Other than Masterson, their pitching has been somewhat forgettable. I still feel confident that they have the opportunity to squeak in the playoffs and finish in 2nd in this division. It’s very wide open after the first month.

Chicago gets a D. Plain and simple. They were a good team last year, but so far this year they haven’t put anything together and on top of that, they are boring to watch. Not a lot of run support to help out their pitching which has been fairly decent so far.

Kansas City has been a surprise to me. I think their pitching has really kept them in it so far. The additions of James Shields and Ervin Santana has helped them out big time. Their offense hasn’t even clicked yet. If Eric Hosmer and Mike Moustakas can heat up at some point, they may have a dangerous team with the addition to Billy Butler.

Minnesota is the bigger surprise, hence the better grade…just by a smidge. I thought Minnesota would be one of the worst teams this season and of course there is still time for that to unfold. I think they have benefited from a somewhat weak schedule to start the season and also they seem to get postponed a lot. By the end of May they have a good chance to be where I figured they would be.

AL West
1) LA Angels     (F)
2) Oakland Athletics     (A-)
3) Seattle Mariners       (D)
4) Texas Rangers         (A)
5) Houston Astros         (C)

Analysis: LA Angels have been awful. With a lineup like that they should not be struggling for yet the second season in a row. They can’t score runs AND their pitching has been bad. It doesn’t help that Jared Weaver is on the DL, but the rest of the starters haven’t helped out either. Their bullpen has been shaky as well. For a team that can’t score any runs and then you look at their lineup and you see names like Pujols, Hamilton, Trout, and Trumbo you should question why they haven’t been winning games. Maybe it’s just a slow start and they’ll pick it up, but I wouldn’t be surprised to see a hitting coach or Manager to be fired if they don’t pick it up soon.

Oakland gets a very good grade from me, partly because I figured they would be near the top for most of the season, but their offense has been outstanding. I believe they have the most runs scored in the AL so far this season and they are always a team that lacks star players, yet they always seem to be good. They are led by Coco Crisp and Jed Lowrie. The question is will they keep it up, get help, or will their pitching remain at a constant high to help out their offense when they go cold.

Seattle has been disappointing to me so far this year. I thought they would be much better, but they are yet another team that is struggling with the bat. On top of that, their pitching hasn’t been great either other than King Felix. There is still a potential for them, but I’d like to see them bring up some of their prospects earlier rather than later.

Texas is getting an A from me because I didn’t see them competing at the top. Every year they seem to lose some of their best players in recent years, which all seem to flurry to the Angels (CJ Wilson and Josh Hamilton), yet its the Rangers that remain a team to beat in the West. The best thing is, I don’t think we’ve seen the best of Texas either with some of the young prospects not in the Majors yet. Darvish is also looking like the Ace they want and need.

Houston gets an average grade from me because I thought they would be much worse. Their offense has been better than Seattle and they are close in runs scored with Texas. They’ve shown they can score runs and show a little future potential. Don’t get me wrong, I don’t think they have potential this season, but refreshing that they may not lose 120 games this season like many predicted.

Check back tomorrow for the National League grades from the month of April!