It’s the beginning of June which means we have our conference champions! Congrats to the San Antonio Spurs and to the Miami Heat. As successful as I was in the Semi’s for predicting the series, I was quite wrong on the conference finals. The Spurs played the series so fast, you may even have forgotten who they beat. The team they beat was the Memphis Grizzlies who had played great up until that series. At hindsight, San Antonio steam rolled through their competition in the playoffs and only losing a total of 2 games in the first 3 rounds. The last time the Spurs played a game it was on May 27th when they beat Memphis by 7 points while Tony Parker knocked down 37 points. Did someone say the Spurs were old and worn out? They haven’t looked like it. I always hear analysts say how rest kills a team’s momentum, but I think in this case with a veteran lineup with the likes of Manu Ginobili, Tony Parker, and Tim Duncan, they’ll be well rested and ready to play on Thursday. As for the Eastern Conference champions, they struggled their way through a 7 game series against the Pacers. The Pacers gave them all they can handle, but going into the playoffs I knew Indiana had a good defense, but the question was always can the score points consistently. When you play a team like Miami, you can frustrate them on the defensive side of the ball, but you still have to put the rock in the basket. Let’s jump right into the analysis and prediction.
#1 Miami Heat
vs.
#2 San Antonio Spurs
3rd round outcome: Miami over Indiana in 7. San Antonio over Memphis in 4.
3rd round prediction: Miami in 5. Memphis in 6.
Analysis: I already jumped into some of the analysis of each of the teams playing in the Finals in the Intro, but let’s get a little deeper. San Antonio may not be the most fun to watch on the court, but they play defense, they drive the ball in the paint, they post up, they don’t turn the ball over often, they never quit when behind, and they always seem to get the job done. As I mentioned before, the Spurs have only lost 2 games during the post season and they were both to the Warriors. This isn’t the first time a Gregg Popovich coached Spurs team has face LeBron James in the NBA Finals. They swept the Cavaliers back in 2007, but LeBron is a different player than he was back then and has a supporting cast, but I’ll get to that. The Spurs really had a remarkable year and they always seem to be at the tops of the Western Conference. Tim Duncan had arguably one of the best seasons in his career, while Tony Parker has been ailing, but he was insanely good last round. If there is a team that can beat Miami, this is probably the team, especially how disciplined and experienced they are.
As for Miami, this is their (count it) third straight year reaching the NBA Finals. The first year they fell to the Dallas Mavericks, last year they beat the Oklahoma City Thunder, and now they play San Antonio who are not too far off from the type of team Dallas was 2 years ago. LeBron has improved his game over the last few years (if that’s even possible). He can knock down three’s, he can pass the ball spot on, he can knock down a jumper anywhere on the court, and oh yeah, he can post up if they need him to. The Heat got a lot of criticism from fans and analysts through the Eastern Conference Finals for the poor play from his supporting cast (more specifically, Wade and Bosh). However, Wade stepped up in Game 7 when it really mattered. What really hurt the Heat against the Pacers was their inability to rebound. Miami is a fairly small team generally speaking, but when you have shooters like that, you can manage a game without winning the rebound battle. It may hurt Miami more in this series because as Indiana lacks shooting percentage, San Antonio does not have that problem. Miami came off a little vulnerable in the last series, but knowing they are 4 wins away from back to back championships, is this when adrenaline and LeBron’s super powers come out and shine under the lights?
Prediction: San Antonio over Miami in 6.
As a reminder, to start the season I predicted the Miami Heat would beat the Oklahoma City Thunder (again) this season, so I’m 50% right that Miami would make it here again (not a shocker). I’m hoping for three things personally as I watch the Finals: 1) That the officials let these two teams play and showcase their talents and don’t ruin it by excessive flopping mis-calls. 2) That all games played are competitive and don’t lack super star shows (i.e. LeBron knocking down 50). and 3) I wouldn’t be sad if the Spurs somehow swept Miami.
After the Finals are complete, there are about 3 months off but it doesn’t stop any of the potential off-season excitement. Keep on the look out for posts about coaching changes, free agency signings, trades, the NBA draft, and of course the 2013-14 NBA schedule. And, good riddance to David Stern!
therubbergame 