Needless to say, it’s been a long time since I’ve written and a lot of big events has happened in the meantime. Baseball game to an end, fantasy football stunk (as usual), Ray Lewis ends his career with his 2nd Super Bowl ring, Alabama wins another championship, Manti Te’o and his invisible girlfriend are household names, the NBA is approaching the all-star break, and we’re a month away from March Madness.
So after everything that has happened…where do I start? It’s not quite the time for MLB predictions quite yet, but in my money keeper league, keepers have been locked and now it’s looking forward to the draft in March. This league allows teams to select 10 keepers (no restriction to how many batters or pitchers). There are some key players I wanted to keep, or whom I tried to trade for extra draft picks and was unsuccessful. The ten guys I kept:
1) Matt Wieters
2) Ryan Howard
3) Ryan Zimmerman
4) Giancarlo Stanton
5) Michael Morse
6) Yovani Gallardo
7) Mike Minor
8) James Shields
9) Tommy Hanson
10) Jeremy Hellickson
The two guys I was deciding on possibly keeping were Fernando Rodney (closer of Tampa) and Ian Kinsler (2B of Texas). I decided on keeping Morse instead of Kinsler even though Morse is now part of the Mariners OF instead of Washington, but I made a trade for him late in the year where in part of the trade I gave up Trumbo. I felt the need to keep Morse at this point. My pitching was my worst part last year and made a lot of offseason changes to help my keeper list in this regard. Keeping a closer is always difficult since the spot of a closer is never held tight unless your name happens to be Mariano Rivera. It was a hard decision, but the chances of Rodney getting 40 saves again and having an under 1 ERA are slim. I’m taking my chances with Hanson, even in the American League.
Changing modes, March Madness is not far away which means my annual trip to Las Vegas for the first few rounds (Wednesday through Sunday) is approaching. This season I have been studying who I like. Define “like”. Liking a team isn’t as simple as saying, I’m a Gator fan, so yeah, I like them to win some games in March. Do I see them getting a favorable seed, winning games, advancing far into the tourney, or getting a bad draw? Also, how do these teams I “like” do well in spreads. These are all key questions that I still haven’t figured out. At the moment, here are the top 5 teams I “like”:
1) Florida Gators – Okay, I know I just mentioned them above, but one thing I like about this team is that they are greatly coached and have a stellar defense. They have beaten down the SEC opponents (keeping in mind the SEC is weak). In all their wins in conference, it’s been above 14 points. If they win the SEC, they’ll get a great seed. Probably a 2 and a chance at a 1. They may have an easy first few rounds.
2) Indiana Hoosiers – Indiana is a treat to watch. The biggest positive I have on this is playing in the toughest conference in the NCAA. Every game is a challenge and that will only benefit them moving into the tourney. They have several leaders that can score at will. I don’t have many doubts in gambling on them to cover spreads if they play a mid major or two early.
3) Michigan Wolverines – Sure, they’ve lost some heartbreakers lately, but there is no question that they are skilled. There is a reason why I have multiple teams in my top 5 from the Big 10. A lot of people would say, well, they lost to Indiana, what makes you think they can beat them in the tourney? They may not need to until the Final 4 or Championship. If both teams grab a 1 seed or one a two seed, then they won’t run into each other early.
4) Kansas Jayhawks – They’ve had a rough stretch where they lost 3 games in a row. Does that scare me? Obviously not. I still think they are one of the most talented teams in the country. They also have a ton of experience in the tournament. The Big 12 was a questionable conference, but at the moment there are 3 teams in the top 25 from the conference and Oklahoma is looking in and may make the tourney also. Kansas should still get a high ranking and people will forget about their tough stretch of losses.
5) Miami Hurricanes – They are ranked third in the country in one poll and they are another team that has a great core. They basically came out of nowhere since they were unranked to start the year. They have beaten both Duke and UNC at home in blowouts and are undefeated in the ACC (which isn’t too shabby of a conference if you ask me). Miami are a surprise team, but should not be taken lightly heading into the tourney.
Quickly, I’ll run through the five teams that I don’t favor so much. It’s not that I don’t “like” these teams, but they may be hard to read pending on their match ups. Lets call them by top 5 nightmares:
1) Arizona Wildcats – They are 20-3 at the moment. How is this team a nightmare team? The PAC-12 is deceiving and have a feeling it’s going to kill me on a lot of picks. Four of their 20 wins should have been losses. They play in tight games where they can swing a spread. If they are favored by a big margin, I’m sure to take the underdog in those, but for a team with such a good record, who really knows?
2) Wisconsin Badgers – There will be some Big 10 teams on this list as well. Wisconsin has won some nice looking games and of course they will in a conference that gives them that opportunity. They’ve beaten Illinois twice, Indiana, Minnesota, and Michigan. However, they rank 180th overall in points scored. Confused yet? This team will surely bite someone in the butt.
3) Illinois Illini – What do you know? Another Big 10 team. This team is even more frustrating than the last one! They are 18-8 and only 5-7 in the conference, but they have the opportunity of being a bubble buster from their key wins this year. They’ve beaten Butler, at Gonzaga, Ohio State, Indiana, at Minnesota. They also happened to lose to Purdue and Northwestern. They are clearly an up and down team and a team that gamblers should stay away from.
4) Duke Bluedevils – I was never a fan of Duke going into the tourney. This year they happen to be 22-2. Not bad right? The two games they’ve lost was at NC State by under 10 and at Miami by over 25. Recently, they slipped by UNC, BC, and Wake Forest. Earlier in the year they beat Kentucky, Louisville, and Ohio State. They always get ranked higher, Vegas sets big point margins, and they never seem to cover or lose outright.
5) Colorado State Rams – The Rams are 20-4 this season, ranked in the top 25, and they rank 1st in the NCAA in rebounds per game. They are beasts in the paint and they play in a tough mid major conference. They lost 2 games earlier in the year that were not good (at Colorado, at Illinois-Chicago). More recently, they lost against ranked San Diego State and New Mexico (both on the road). The bad part is they don’t have any significant wins outside of their conference or haven’t played anyone significant out of conference. Hard to get a read on how good they are. A good indication is how they do in their conference tourney when they have to play back to back games.
That’s all I got in my return back to the posts. As always, feel free to leave comments!
therubbergame 